Joaquin - 50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

The well know waiting game continues as locals watch to see where Tropical Storm Joaquin heads as the week goes on.  It's a safe bet that the weather will truly suck in terms of heavy rains and gusty winds even if Joaquin stays a ways off shore.  Folks up the coast to the north should likewise pay attention.   We've had the generator serviced and will be testing the three large sump pumps just to play it safe.

Then there is this from NBC News:

Now check out this:  It's a compilation of many of the US models on Joaquin-- and there's a strong consensus toward a VA. Beach landfall: 

This track would be CATASTROPHIC and cause major damage across the state.  Power outages, trees down, flooding rain:  All are on the table.

BUT
The European model, which is very good model (and the one that sniffed out Superstorm Sandy early) still has Joaquin well offshore.  This would be good news, but Joaquin could still interact with the Jet Stream, a stalled cold front, and some upper level energy to produce big wind and rain.  But the offshore track would mean much less damage.

 As I said, the joys of coastal living.