Monday, December 15, 2014

Obama’s Immigration Move Benefits Democrats


If one listens to the white supremacists of the Republican party, Barack Obama's executive order on immigration was all about adding new voters to the Democrat base.  Never mind that citizenship - and with it, voting - were not part of the equation.  But that is not to say that the move won't bring real benefits to Democrats in the form of great popularity with Hispanics.  Meanwhile, the hyperventilating and rants of racists within the GOP further confirm to most Hispanics and other racial minorities that the GOP is not friendly to them or fellow minority groups.   A piece in the New York Times looks at how Obama's executive order may yield long term benefits for Democrats.  Here are excerpts:
A month after President Obama’s decision to defer deportation and offer work authorization to millions of undocumented immigrants, his action not only looks like a winner, but it also seems to be a fairly promising sign for Democrats after the disastrous midterm elections last month.

This is not because Mr. Obama’s immigration decision has proved to be popular. In fact, it is, over all, unpopular. Polls show that a majority of adults oppose his plan.

But as is the case on many issues, the politics of immigration reform are not simply about the issue’s popularity in national public opinion polls. They are also about intensity and coalitions: Who are the voters that really care about the issue, and how much do they matter? On immigration, the answer is fairly clear. Hispanic voters care a lot, and matter a lot.

A Pew Research poll conducted last week showed that 81 percent of Hispanics supported the immigration action . . . . That large majorities of Hispanic adults support Mr. Obama’s decision isn’t at all surprising. What is more telling is the extent to which Mr. Obama’s approval rating among Hispanic voters seems to have improved. Both Pew Research and Gallup show Mr. Obama’s approval rating rising into the mid-60s, up from around 50 percent earlier in November. 

[T]he gain is extremely impressive. By signing a piece of paper and taking a trip to Las Vegas, Mr. Obama boosted his rating among Hispanics, who make up 14 percent of the adult population, by around 15 points. 

Mr. Obama’s decision will eventually fade from the minds of Hispanic voters as well. But the longevity of the bump is probably less significant than its size and the fact that it happened. It may be a sign that Democratic-leaning voters who currently disapprove of Mr. Obama’s performance will come flocking back to the Democrats the moment the 2016 campaign arouses their partisanship. It is a sign that although these voters may be dissatisfied with Mr. Obama’s performance, they remain quite receptive to Democratic messages on the issues that brought them to the party in the first place.

Whether the next Democrat will reassemble the coalition that re-elected Mr. Obama remains to be seen. That said, Mr. Obama’s rebound among Hispanic voters may be a sign that the tactics that worked for the Obama campaign in 2012 might still work in 2016.

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