Sunday, December 01, 2013

CNN/ORC poll: Chris Christie Leads 2016 GOP

A new CNN poll shows that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads the field of would be GOP presidential nominees.  The problem, of course, is that polls typically do not show who will actually get out and vote and primaries.  Also, the poll shows that Christie's lead is much diminished when one looks at the lower income Republicans surveyed - i.e., the ones who make up the ranks of the Christofascist and Tea Party elements of the GOP base.  As promising as the poll may appear, I continue to believe that Christie will have a hard time winning over the Kool-Aid drinking base that tends to dominate primary contests.  Here are highlights from CNN:

A new national poll indicates, that for the first time, there may be an early frontrunner in the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

The poll, released Friday morning, indicates that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, fresh off his Garden State re-election landslide victory and widespread national media attention, jumped to the top of the pack of potential contenders for the GOP nomination.

Twenty-four percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP questioned in the survey say they'd be likely to support Christie for the Republican nomination, up seven percentage points from a CNN poll in early September. Back then, Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget chairman and the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, were virtually tied at the top of the GOP list, with Christie at 17% and Ryan at 16%.

But Ryan, who's stayed mostly away from the political spotlight the past few months, has dropped to 11%, putting him in third place, slightly behind Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 13%. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who like Paul has made multiple trips this year to the states that kick off the presidential primary and caucus calendar, like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, stands at 10% in the survey, the only other Republican White House hopeful to get double-digit support.

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 9% in the poll, with longtime Texas Gov. and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry at 7%, and former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who battled eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney deep into last year's primaries and caucuses, each at 6%.

The poll suggests a wide divide over income among Republican voters.  "Among Republicans making more than $50,000, Christie wins 32% support, 20 points higher than Cruz, Ryan, or Marco Rubio, all of whom get 12% among higher-income GOPers, and 23 points higher than Paul," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But among Republicans who make less than $50,000 a year, Christie's support drops 19 points, only good enough for second place behind Paul."
 As much as I'd like to believe that there is hope for the GOP regaining sanity, I do not see it happening as long as the ignorance embracing Christofascists and Tea Party lunatics make up the majority of the current GOP base.



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