Sunday, May 25, 2008

Virginia is Up For Grabs in November

So reports today's Washington Post in an article that analyzes both the presidential contest between Obama and McCain, as well as the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The article also mentions three contested House seats, including that of Thelma Drake. Personally, I believe Obama can carry Virginia in November because the state's political terrain is changing to the point where a candidate can win the state by carrying the metropolitan areas and Northern Virginia, thus outweighing the backward and reactionary parts of the state that vote heavily Republican.quickly Given the way that Hillary Clinton, a/k/a, Akasha, Queen of the Damned, has alienated black voters, I seriously doubt she could carry Virginia should she somehow steal the nomination from Obama.
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Moreover, from the military personnel I know, the GOP should not be overly confident of carrying the military vote. In this area both Bush and the Iraq War are very unpopular, and fears that McCain would not get the USA out of Iraq could send many military voters and their families to Obama. Multiple deployments and the strain it places on both the military personnel and their families is wearing heavily on many. One military officer I know confided off the record that many in the military want Obama to win so that an end can be made of the Chimperator's ill-conceived and lie induced war. Here are some highlights from the WP:
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RICHMOND -- For the first time in decades, Virginia is shaping up as a presidential battleground as advisers to Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama lay plans to compete in the fall for the state's 13 electoral votes. The battle for Virginia could be decisive in determining which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. But there will also be campaigns for the seats held by U.S. Sen. John W. Warner and U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, both Republicans who are retiring. National Democrats, optimistic that they can pick up the Warner and Davis seats, also plan to target three incumbent House Republicans. "Virginia has changed dramatically over the years, but the question will be, has it changed enough?" said Larry J. Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.
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But Democrats are emboldened by the state's diversifying demographics, Bush's low approval ratings and statistics showing 131,000 newly registered voters so far this year, nearly half of whom are under 25. Democrats also think they will have a formidable trio of Obama, Kaine and U.S. Senate candidate Mark R. Warner selling the party's message in Virginia. As he proved with his 30-point win in the state's Democratic primary Feb. 12, Obama has amassed tens of thousands of loyal supporters in Virginia, a state where African Americans make up 20 percent of the population and residents from increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia account for one in three registered voters.
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In Northern Virginia, Obama will be trying to replicate the success of Kaine and U.S. Sen. James Webb (D) in getting about 60 percent of the vote in Fairfax County, where as many as a half-million people could turn out on Election Day. One in seven Virginia residents lives in Fairfax, which Bush lost by 6 percentage points in 2004. In Arlington County, where Kaine and Webb received nearly three-quarters of the vote in their races, Democrats are hoping Warner and Obama can get 80 percent of the vote this year.

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